The universes below are specifically designed for targeting voters likely to participate in the upcoming 2024 Primary election and can also be used to plan for 2024 General. They reference the most relevant election vote history, registration dates, and other data to predict degrees of turnout behavior. Universes 24P1 through 24P9C expand incrementally as each successive universe adds the next best layer of additional likely voters.
- Universes 24P1 thru 24P6 include higher propensity voters, focusing more on Primary elections with a limited number of high propensity midterm voters included, that would be ideal for down ballot races and planning for the 2024 Primary (Good for expensive mailers).
- Universes 24P7 thru 24P8 include high to mid propensity voters focusing on both Primary and midterm General elections that are ideal for the 2024 Primary or General, or for planning for the 2026 General (Good for mail/walk/phone/email/digital).
- Universes 24P8A thru 24P9C are good overall high to lower propensity universes for the November 2024 General, or any broadly targeted outreach (Good for all types of voter outreach mail/walk/phone/email/digital).
- Universes 24PGOTV thru 24PWRAP include only lower to mid propensity voters (Good for GOTV programs because they are limited to voters who are newer, younger, or less likely to vote in this election).
2024 PRIMARY & PRELIMINARY GENERAL ELECTION
(24P) LIKELY VOTER UNIVERSES
24P1: [(Voted 6/22), Or (Voted all 4 of 6/18, 3/20, 9/21 and 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in 11/22 or any 2023 election or Re-Registered since 11/22.
24P1E: [Any 24P1 voter, plus any Equity Base Universe voter in 24P2].
24P2: [(Voted 6/22), Or (Voted at least 3 of 6/18, 3/20, 9/21 or 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in 11/22 or any 2023 election or Re-Registered since 11/22.
24P2E: [Any 24P2 voter, plus any Equity Base Universe voter in 24P3].
24P3: [(Voted 6/22), Or (Voted at least 3 of 6/18, 3/20, 9/21 or 11/22), Or (Registered since 6/18 & voted 3/20), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted in both 9/21 & 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in 11/22 or any 2023 election or Re-Registered since 6/22.
24P3E: [Any 24P3 voter, plus any Equity Base Universe voter in 24P4].
24P4: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/16, 6/18, 3/20 or 6/22), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted in both 9/21 & 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in any in 2022 or 2023 election or Re-Registered since 6/22.
24P4A: [Any 24P4 voter, plus any (DemPlus or RepPlus) that registered since 3/20 and voted 11/22].
24P4B: [Any 24P4 voter, plus any voter that registered since 3/20 and voted 11/22].
24P4E: [Any 24P4B voter, plus any Equity Base Universe voter in 24P5].
24P5: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/16, 6/18, 3/20 or 6/22), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in 9/21, any 2022 or 2023 election or Re-Registered since 6/22.
24P5E: [Any 24P5 voter, plus any Equity Base Universe voter in 24P6].
24P6: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/16, 6/18, 3/20 or 6/22), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in 11/20, 9/21, any 2022 or 2023 election or Registered since 11/20.
24P6A: [Any 24P6 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 11/22 using an Active Registration method].
24P6B: [Any 24P6 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 11/22].
24P7: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/16, 6/18, 3/20, 6/22 or 11/22), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted in both 11/20 & 9/21) , Or (Registered since 11/20 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in any 2022 or 2023 election, Registered since 11/20, or qualify for 24P6.
24P7A: [Any 24P7 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 11/22 using an Active Registration method].
24P7B: [Any 24P7 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21 using an Active Registration method, Or any voter that Registered since 11/22].
24P8: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/16, 6/18, 11/18, 3/20, 9/21, 6/22 or 11/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted in any 11/20, 9/21, 2022 or 2023 election, or Registered since 11/20.
24P8A: [Any 24P8 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 3/20 & voted 11/20].
24P8B: [Any 24P8A voter, plus any voter that Registered since 11/22 using an Active Registration method].
24P8C: [Any 24P8A voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21 using an Active Registration method, Or any voter that Registered since 11/22].
24P9: [(Voted at least 1 of 11/20, 9/21, 6/22, 11/22 or any other 2022 or 2023 election), Or (Any voter that Registered since 11/22), plus (Any voter that voted at least 1 of 6/16, 6/18, 11/18, 3/20 & Re-Registered since 11/20)].
24P9A: [Any 24P9 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 6/22].
24P9B: [Any 24P9 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21].
24P9C: [Any 24P9 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 11/20].
24PGOTV: Only mid and low propensity voters from 24P9C, EXCLUDING ANY high propensity voter in 24P3.
24PWRAP: Only mid and low propensity houses with voters from 24P9C, EXCLUDING ANY HOUSES with at least 1 high propensity voter in 24P3.
- All of the above likely voter universes exclude any voters we have identified as deceased or moved from their current residential address
- “Registered since” is defined as a voter with a registration date after the 15 day close of registration for a given election date.
- “Active Registration Method” includes voters who last method of registration was pro-active. These voters actually went out of their way, either online, or going to find a paper form and mailed it in. By showing that they are taking active steps to register they are signaling that it matters to them and we have seen higher turnout from these voters.
- “Equity Base universe voters” include minority voters, renters and younger voters who are typically more transient, susceptible disenfranchisement or likely to fall off and re-register between elections.