The universes below are specifically designed for targeting voters likely to participate in the upcoming 2022 Primary election and can also be used to plan for the 2022 General election. They reference the most relevant election vote history, registration dates, and other data to predict degrees of turnout behavior. Universes 22P1 through 22P10A expand incrementally as each successive universe adds on some additional likely voters.
- Universes 22P1 thru 22P7 are the higher propensity voters, focusing almost exclusively on Primary elections and should be used to plan for the 2022 Primary election (Good for expensive mailers).
- Universes 22P8 thru 22P9 include high to mid propensity voters focusing on both Primary and midterm General elections that could be used to plan for the either the 2022 Primary or the 2022 General (Good for mail/walk/phone/email/digital).
- Universes 22P9A thru 22P10A are good overall high to lower propensity universes for the November 2022 General or any broadly targeted outreach (Good for all types of voter outreach mail/walk/phone/email/digital).
- The 22PGOTV and 22Wrap universes include only the mid to lower propensity voters (Good for GOTV programs) because they are limited to voters who are newer, younger, or less likely to vote in a Primary election.
2022 PRIMARY & PRELIMINARY GENERAL ELECTION
(22P) LIKELY VOTER UNIVERSES
22P1: [(Voted all 4 of 6/14, 6/16, 6/18 and 3/20), Or (Registered since 6/16 & voted both 6/18 and 3/20), Or (Registered since 6/18 & voted both 11/18 and 3/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P2: [(Voted both 6/18 and 3/20), Or (Registered since 6/18 & voted both 11/18 and 3/20) , Or (Registered since 6/18 & voted both 3/20 and 11/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P3: [(Voted 6/14), Or (Voted both 6/18 and 3/20), Or (Registered since 6/16 & voted 6/18) , Or (Registered since 6/18 & voted 3/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P4: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14 or 6/18), Or (Voted both 11/18 and 3/20) (Registered since 6/18 & voted 3/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P5: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14, 6/18 or 3/20) & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21, OR [(Voted at least 2 of 6/14, 6/18 or 11/20, with 1 being 11/20)].
22P6: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14, 6/18 or 3/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P6A: [Any 22P6 voter, plus any (DemPlus or RepPlus) that registered since 3/20 and voted in both 11/20 and 9/21].
22P7: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14, 6/18 or 3/20), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted in both 11/20 and 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/20 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P8: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14, 11/14, 6/18, 11/18 or 3/20), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted in 11/20 and 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/20 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P8A: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14, 11/14, 6/18, 11/18 or 3/20), Or (Registered since 11/18 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P8B: [Any 22P8A voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21 using an Active registration method].
22P8C: [Any 22P8A voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21].
22P9: [(Voted at least 1 of 6/14, 11/14, 6/18, 11/18, 3/20 or 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have also voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22P9A: [Any 22P9 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21 using an Active registration method].
22P9B: [Any 22P9 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21].
22P9C: [Any 22P9 voter, plus any voter that (Registered since 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/18 & voted 11/20).
22P10: [(Voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021), Or (Any voter that registered since 9/21)].
22P10A: [(Voted 11/20, 9/21 or any election in 2021), Or (Any voter that registered since 11/20)].
22PGOTV: [Only mid and low propensity voters from 22P10A, EXCLUDING ANY high propensity voter in 22P4.
22PWrap: Only mid and low propensity houses with voters from 22P10A, EXCLUDING ANY HOUSE with at least 1 high propensity voter in 22P4.
- All of the above likely voter universes exclude any voters we have identified as deceased or moved from their current residential address
- “Registered since” is defined as a voter with a registration date after the 15 day close of registration for a given election date.
- “Active Registration Method” includes voters who last method of registration was pro-active. These voters actually went out of their way, either online, or going to find a paper form and mailed it in. By showing that they are taking active steps to register they are signaling that it matters to them and we have seen higher turnout from these voters.