The universes below are specifically designed for targeting voters likely to participate in the upcoming 2022 General election and can also be used to plan for 2024 elections. They reference the most relevant election vote history, registration dates, and other data to predict degrees of turnout behavior. Universes 22G1 through 22G9B expand incrementally as each successive universe adds on some additional likely voters.
- Universes 22G1 thru 22G5 include higher propensity voters, focusing more on Primary elections with a limited number of high propensity midterm voters included, that would be ideal for down ballot races and planning for the 2024 Primary (Good for expensive mailers).
- Universes 22G6 thru 22G7C include high to mid propensity voters focusing on both Primary and midterm General elections that are ideal for the 2022 General (Good for mail/walk/phone/email/digital).
- Universes 22G8 thru 22G9B are good overall high to lower propensity universes for the November 2022 or 2024 General, or any broadly targeted outreach (Good for all types of voter outreach mail/walk/phone/email/digital).
- Universes 22GGOTV and 22GWrap include only the lower propensity voters (Good for GOTV programs because they are limited to voters who are newer, younger, or less likely to vote in this election).
2022 GENERAL ELECTION
(22G) LIKELY VOTER UNIVERSES
22G1: [(Voted at least 3 of 11/18, 3/20, 9/21 or 6/22), Or (Registered since 6/16 & voted all 3 of 11/20, 9/21 and 6/22), Or (Registered since 11/20 & voted both 9/21 and 6/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 6/22.
22G1E: [Any 22G1 voter, plus any Equity Base universe voter in 22G2].
22G2: [(Voted at least 3 of 11/14, 11/18, 3/20, 9/21 or 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18, 9/21 or 6/22, with 1 being 6/22), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted 6/22)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 9/21 or 6/22.
22G2E: [Any 22G2 voter, plus any Equity Base universe voter in 22G3].
22G3: [(Voted at least 3 of 11/14, 11/18, 3/20, 9/21 or 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18, 9/21 or 6/22, with 1 being 6/22), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted 6/22), Or (Registered since 11/20 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 9/21 or 6/22.
22G3E: [Any 22G3 voter, plus any Equity Base universe voter in 22G4].
22G4: [(Voted 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18, 3/20 or 9/21, with 1 being 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/20 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 9/21 or 6/22.
22G4E: [Any 22G4 voter, plus any Equity Base universe voter in 22G5].
22G5: [(Voted 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18, 3/20, 11/20 or 9/21, with 1 being 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/18 & voted 9/21)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 9/21 or 6/22.
22G5E: [Any 22G5 voter, plus any Equity Base universe voter in 22G6].
22G6: [(Voted 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18, 3/20, 11/20 or 9/21, with 1 being 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/18 & voted 9/21), Or (Registered since 11/16 & voted in both 11/18 & 11/20] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 11/20, 9/21 or 6/22.
22G6E: [Any 22G6 voter, plus any Equity Base universe voter in 22G7].
22G7: [(Voted at least 1 of 9/21 or 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18 or 11/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 11/20, 9/21, 6/22 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22G7A: [Any 22G7 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 6/22].
22G7B: [Any 22G7A voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21 using an Active registration method].
22G7C: [Any 22G7 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21].
22G8: [(Voted at least 1 of 9/21 or 6/22), Or (Voted at least 2 of 11/14, 11/18, 3/20 or 11/20), Or (Registered since 3/20 & voted 11/20)] & to qualify for universe voter had to have voted 11/20, 9/21, 6/22 or any election in 2021, or re-registered since 9/21.
22G8A: [Any 22G8 voter, plus any voter that Registered since 6/22].
22G9: [(Voted at least 1 of 11/20, 9/21, 6/22, plus any voter that Registered since 6/22)].
22P9A: [(Voted at least 1 of 11/20, 9/21, 6/22, plus any voter that Registered since 9/21)].
22P9B: [(Voted at least 1 of 11/20, 9/21, 6/22, plus any voter that Registered since 11/20)].
22GGOTV: Only mid and low propensity voters from 22G9B, EXCLUDING ANY high propensity voter in 22G4.
22GWrap: Only mid and low propensity houses with voters from 22G9B, EXCLUDING ANY HOUSE with at least 1 high propensity voter in 22G4.
- All of the above likely voter universes exclude any voters we have identified as deceased or moved from their current residential address
- “Registered since” is defined as a voter with a registration date after the 15 day close of registration for a given election date.
- “Active Registration Method” includes voters who last method of registration was pro-active. These voters actually went out of their way, either online, or going to find a paper form and mailed it in. By showing that they are taking active steps to register they are signaling that it matters to them and we have seen higher turnout from these voters.
- “Equity Base universe voters” include African-American and Latino voters, with additional emphasis on renters and younger voters who are more susceptible to disenfranchisement, or more likely to have lapses in their registrations.